saagar@xyz - ~

saagar@xyz:~$ cat wallet-test.md

Wallet Test

Five checks to run before you build anything heavy

from The Wallet Test by Saagar Varu

Interest is nearly free to generate. Curiosity, politeness, and the desire to be encouraging will get you a room full of people who say yes to a survey. None of that tells you whether the thing you're building solves a problem big enough that someone will trade money for it.

A $1 deposit that someone actually pays is worth more than a hundred replies that say "sounds great."

  1. 01The problem is real
    • Can you name three specific people who have this problem right now — not hypothetically?
    • Did they tell you unprompted, or did you have to lead them to it?
    • How are they solving it today? (If the answer is "they just live with it" — good sign.)
  2. 02The cost of the problem is legible
    • What is the actual cost — in time, money, or stress — of leaving this unsolved?
    • Can they tell you that number without you suggesting it?
    • Is the cost recurring, or a one-time frustration?
  3. 03Someone will transact
    • Have you asked anyone to pay, deposit, or pre-order — even $1?
    • If yes: how many said yes, and how many went quiet at the ask?
    • If no: why not? What are you waiting to learn first?
  4. 04You are the right builder
    • Why does this problem belong to you specifically to solve?
    • Do you have access to the users, or will you have to manufacture it?
    • What would make you walk away from this? (If you can't answer this, you haven't thought about it hard enough.)
  5. 05The first version is scoped
    • What is the single thing the MVP must do for someone to pay or refer?
    • What are you explicitly cutting until after the first paying customer?
    • Can you ship this in under 6 weeks with your current resources?

saagar@xyz:~$ ./evaluate.sh --verdict

If you can't answer most of these with specifics — not hypotheticals, not "I think", but names and numbers — the right move is more discovery, not more building. The cost of being wrong at this stage is an afternoon. After you've built, it's quarters.

Read the full essay →